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April 2003

April 28, 2003

Is the War Over?

Marina.jpg Many people think about this question right now and argue about the future happenings in Iraq and how they will influence the Middle East and other countries. Russian people never supported the American government in their aspirations of war and later in their hostilities in Iraq. They don't support it now when the war is almost won and the Iraqi people thank Americans in front of the cameras and reporters. The majority of Russian people believe that it's not for the best of the world's history. Many think that all that happened is, in the first place, for the benefit of thieves who loot the country to pieces. It's impossible for the American government to find a replacement for Saddam's tyranny and bring peace and order into the country.

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Economic Consequences of the Iraq War

VanThreats of boycott of French products after the French government refused to support the Iraq war (they wanted the UN inspections to continue) are causing increasing concern for French industries. President Chirac tried to be reassuring and underlined that a boycott would go against free market trade, but with the beginning of the war, anti-French feelings have grown stronger. The world's largest luxury goods maker, LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) said its revenue fell 5.4 percent in the first quarter because of weaker currencies and a decline in tourism. Whereas the company said that sales in the United States were strong, small companies are the most affected by the boycott. Vine and gastronomy are the most sensitive sectors: restaurants and shops’ owners –especially in the South and in the Midwest- do not want to upset consumers by putting French products on their menus or their shelves. To fight the boycott, French companies adopted two positions: discretion (no advertisement) or Americanization (hiding their French origins or reminding that French companies employ American people). Economic difficulties in tourism started before the war; since September 11th there has been a reluctance to travel or to study abroad. As a reaction, calls for boycott of US products are spreading in Europe. Unlike American boycott that is supported by mass medias such as Fox News or radio stations, this movement is launched by grass-roots or individual groups (often through Internet). With a recent surge in petition drives and demonstrations that equate US brands with imperialism or militarism, advertisers are confronting perhaps the most sustained anti-American feelings abroad since the Vietnam War.

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Economic Consequences of Iraq War

samThe consequences of the war have been felt in the oil exportations as well as other Ecuadorian products. The world nowadays is very interdependent. For that reason, the war between the United States and Irak causes repercussions even to countries that are far away form the conflict like Ecuador, specifically economically. In the short term, some cases are positive -high oil price-, but is a problem in other cases: the cosumer confidence in the United States, main commercial partner of Ecuador has fallen and will continue to lower levels if this war remains, even if the Army Affairs specialists consider that this possibility is remote. In the medium term, it is possible that the oil price could fall considerably because of circumstances related to this conflict.

The Cost of the Conflict

ClaudiaIn last March, Chile - being a member of the Security Council of the United Nations - gave its vote against the American intervention in Iraq, the country clearly voted against war, but not against the United States. Apparently the position of my country surprised many due to the bilateral interests at the time. When saying interests, I mean the Free Trade Treaty between these two nations;although both parties came to an agreement on the past December, it has not been signed yet. Our president declared the Chilean opposition to the war (we must remember that a president who has been democratically elected, must be the voice of the people), and with it the conflicts came. They have been mainly comments expressing the American "disappointment" for the Chilean vote, which was made public by the USA trade representative, Robert Zoellick. In any case, Chile maintains its optimism that in spite of the differences that have emerged in the process; both nations are capable to fulfill the treaty.

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Trade relations between the US and Germany regarding the war in Iraq

carstenGermany is an exporting country for several reasons. We have limited resources of raw materials and therefore have to concentrate on refinement and processing. The production of machines, production facilities and of course automobiles is a focal point of the German industry. Those products are exported worldwide and are in high demand due to their good quality and their high technical standard. The USA is the biggest importer in the world and therefore the North-American market is vital to the German export. German car brands are becoming more and more popular in the New World. BMW, Daimler-Chrysler and the Volkswagen group were able to gain noticeable market shares lately.

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Bulgaria

hristo Bulgaria was one of the three countries on the United Nations' Security Council, along with Spain and England that supported the American invasion of Iraq. I don't know the exact reason for this support, but part of it was the $1.8 billion dollars of Iraqi debt, which the Iraqis owe to the country. Now, when the war is over, Bulgaria will probably have to suffer some of the consequences the war might have on the economy. Whether the short-term conflict in Iraq will have favorable consequences for the Bulgarian economy will be clear in June or September, the Vice Prime-minister Nikolay Vasilev forecast. The first effect felt so far is the rise in oil prices; tourism has also been affected slightly. According to Vasilev, Bulgaria can expect a 10-percent increase in tourism receipts this year. A couple of weeks ago the Bulgarian Prime-minister Simeon Saxe Coburg-Gotha returned from his working visit in Washington. He assessed his meeting with president Bush as very successful. During the visit, the Bulgarian foreign minister Solomon Passi accompanied the Prime minister. Minister Passi commented from the USA that Bulgaria had presented all its requests: increasing US investment, the trade turnover, and the problem about Iraq's debt to Bulgaria. Asked to comment Simeon Saxe Coburg-Gotha's words that Bulgaria would receive guarantees like a NATO member, Passi quoted Bush: 'The USA stands by its friends.' Bulgaria can hardly receive a bigger guarantee than that, Passi commented. The military support for Bulgaria will increase substantially, the Defense minister Nikolay Svinarov was quoted.

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